Some of you know how big of a Bill Simmons fan that I am. One of my best internet memories is when he included one of my questions in his mailbag when he still had the Grantland site. Well folks, I snagged my favorite football writer from his site; The Ringer’s own, Danny Kelly. We talked briefly about the Bryan Colangelo burner account news (a must read if you live under a rock). We also talked about real football, fantasy football, and Killing Eve. I had a fantastic time and hope you enjoy listening to it!
Fantasy football is a conundrum, and far too often the most surprising of breakout candidates are far too obvious in hindsight (We should have seen Adam Thielen coming, guys). While even the most well-argued “sleepers” fail to pan out year over year, we as obsessed fantasy football gamers can take solace in the fact that hopefully more often than not, our process was correct. This year, one such player has been calling my name in every single draft. In both best ball and dynasty leagues, this player stares at me in the very late rounds with tantalizing upside that for some reason the rest of the world has yet to see. My most owned player in all formats this year is Albert Wilson, and you should be buying too. He finds himself in the middle of a talent, investment, and opportunity Venn Diagram this year: He is a very good player, has significant opportunity in front of him to be fantasy relevant, and a team has spent significant capital on him through a healthy contract.
In the golden age of rookie production in the NFL, it’s only right that I give them their own article. We had two rookies finish in the top 10 in the 2017 season and neither of them were Christian McCaffery or Leonard Fournette. Kareem Hunt, who finished #9, made a late push in the 2017 fantasy draft season at the expense of Spencer Ware’s season ending injury. When it was all said and done, Hunt was going in the third and fourth round in a lot of leagues.
Zach joins me for a RazzBlitz episode that is the same way we started it, one on one. We talk about David Johnson’s 1,000/1,000 goal and how he compares to the rest of the elite options at running back. We talked about Rob Gronkowski vs. Travis Kelce and finished football talk by analyzing the Buccaneer’s wide receiver corps. The second half of the episode we talked about Zach’s trip to Rolling Loud hip hop festival.
Do the Cowboys think that they are going to be successful giving Tavon Austin a bunch of touches? Reid and myself weigh in on this, C.J. Anderson, Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and Corey Coleman. We also touch on Zach’s latest article before we get into last Sunday’s Westworld.
Hello everyone, and welcome to the first of many ADP posts here. I’ll be taking a look at some early average-draft-position data for fantasy drafts in the fall, my analysis of the players in question, and how things could change between now and August.
Mock drafts are some of my favorite things about things about fantasy football. During the summer, you can usually find me on Fantasy Football Calculator (where we are getting our ADP data from today) for multiple hours on end, practicing and figuring out every strategy that I could possibly use in the next few months.
What’s crucial about this is to study public opinion on some of the key players that’ll be selected in 2018. What were the opinions of these players earlier in the summer? Has there been some major shakeups to the data over the past few months? Who has risen? Who has fallen? How has the draft impacted things?
These questions will be answered thanks to this series, so let’s kick it off and get an initial read on things for the summer.
Finally, after months of speculation and mock drafts, the NFL Draft is in the rearview. We can now start to sort out draft values for the league’s new additions based on where they landed. The 2018 draft class is full of potential playmakers, and over the next few weeks and months we’ll assess just how impactful these rookies could be.
But for now, let’s look at the other side of the coin. Which veterans slid down the depth chart because of the names announced in Texas? And which rookies landed in a less than ideal spot? Here are the players trending down after the NFL Draft.
Tyrod Taylor
No one really believed Hue Jackson when he said that Tyrod Taylor would be the Browns starting quarterback this season even if they drafted a quarterback No 1 overall. That’s exactly what happened, taking perhaps the most fiery QB in the draft class to boot. I don’t expect Baker Mayfield to be okay with riding the bench all season, especially if the Browns get off to a rocky start. This has all the makings of the 2016 Rams.
Not only does Taylor have to contend with all new offensive pieces — as fantastic as those individual pieces may be — but he’ll have to get this offense humming quickly to fend off the feisty gaze of the outspoken Mayfield. It’s only a matter of time until the Cleveland faithful start screaming to crack open their shiny new toy.
Dak Prescott
Dak didn’t gain enough in the draft to make up for how much he lost in free agency. (Photo: Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
For Dak, it’s not about what the Cowboys did in the draft. It’s about what they didn’t do, which is add any meaningful pieces to the 3rd-year QB’s arsenal. It’s also about what they lost: Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, arguably Dak’s biggest security blankets. Those are big holes to fill, and Dallas did little to fill them in the draft.
Taken in the 3rd round, Colorado St. wide receiver Michael Gallup projects as a WR2 for the team, while tight end Dalton Schultz is a run-blocker who will make little impact in his first year. The Cowboys’ receiving corp looks frightful, and with no help available on the free agency market, I don’t see how Prescott comes out of this season any higher than QB15.
Josh Allen
In order for Josh Allen to serve a purpose on your fantasy team this year, he had to find the perfect landing spot that could utilize his, ahem, “unique” “talents”. And Buffalo is not that place, at least not in 2018. Unlike the situation in Cleveland, I actually don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Allen sits for a substantial chunk of the season while the Bills trot out free agent acquisition AJ McCarron under center.
Even if he does earn the starting gig, Allen’s relative inexperience (he attempted just 649 passes in his college career compared to Baker Mayfield’s 1497) and inaccuracy (56.2 percent compared to Mayfield’s 68.5 percent) is really going to show in Buffalo, as there aren’t many weapons to cover up those massive blemishes.
Carlos Hyde
Things went from bad to so much worse for Carlos Hyde. Going to Cleveland was bound to result in some regression from Hyde’s two previous seasons in San Fran, what with Duke Johnson already cemented in as the designated pass catching back. But the addition of Nick Chubb just sent him teetering to the edge of fantasy relevance in 2018. Cleveland may have passed on Saquon Barkley, but adding Chubb at the top of the 2nd round does not bode well for Hyde’s volume.
Chubb proved to be a truly special thumper at Georgia, racking up 1,345 yards and 15 TDs in his senior year. While it’s doubtful Chubb completely overtakes the backfield out of the gate — given that Cleveland invested $6 million into Hyde’s first year — the former 49er is now firmly outside the RB1 discussion, and is barely clinging to an RB2 designation. His best case scenario may see him as the Derrick Henry to Chubb’s DeMarco Murray.
Rex Burkhead
New England’s backfield once again gets an overhaul, putting Burkhead in a tough spot. (Photo: Jim Rogash, Getty Images)
Oh Rexy, you were looking so sexy. Now you’re looking so sketchy. With Dion Lewis out the door, 2018 was shaping up to be The Year of Burkhead. But then the Patriots did something they haven’t done since 2006: draft a running back in the first round. That’s not insignificant. New England drafts impact players better than almost anyone, and just about every 1st rounder they’ve had since 2004 has become a Pro Bowl player.
Sony Michel is an elusive back with big play potential in the mold of Alvin Kamara. It’s a lazy comparison to make, perhaps, but not an inaccurate one. The endless rotations in New England are always frustrating for fantasy owners, and this year’s potential round robin features Burkhead, Gillislee, and Jeremy Hill all fighting for early down snaps. Although if the Pats felt confident enough to scoop Michel up in the 1st round, this could prove to be the end of the infamous Beli-tricks in the backfield. Burkhead might end up on the outside looking in.
So long, Devontae Booker‘s fantasy relevance. We hardly knew ye. The window for Booker’s opportunity as the lead back in Denver — which came to fruition after the release of C.J. Anderson — appeared to close the moment Royce Freeman’s name was announced in Round 3. Freeman amassed an incredible 5,600 rushing yards in his four years at Oregon, and also showed he could catch a ball or two. He’s a swift, muscular, bruising back with great vision.
Booker, on the other hand, is…a running back. He was fine in his limited role last year, showing excellent hands if nothing else. You were never going to be super excited to have him on your fantasy squad, but as long as Denver promised to keep feeding him the ball as their lead back — which they promised as recently as February — he had RB2 upside. Now, with Freeman all but guaranteed the starting job, Booker is only worth rostering in the deepest of leagues.
Rashaad Penny
Seattle’s O-line is still terrible, and the team hasn’t produced a top-tier running back since Marshawn Lynch left town. Honestly, there weren’t many landing spots worse for Penny than the Seattle wasteland, and any fantasy experts relishing this move based on Penny’s lack of competition in the backfield needs only to remember one number: 3.2. That was the average yards per carry for all Seattle running backs in 2017.
The Seahawks added only one piece to their abysmal O-line (on Day 3!), which ranked 27th in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus, and until they prove they’re capable of creating any space for their backs, Penny will sit just outside the RB3 discussion in redraft leagues.
Every Giants Running Back On the Roster In 2017
Coming out of last season, there was a gigantic question mark hanging over the Giants’ backfield. That question mark has been replaced with an exclamation point now that Barkley is on board. There were glimmers of hope that Orleans Darkwa or Wayne Gallman could definitively take the reigns in 2018, even while the offseason signing of Jonathan Stewart threw some shade on those
but the addition of Jonathan Stewart during the offseason showed the coaching staff lacked confidence in what they had. And now that they took Barkley, there’s little doubt that Darkwa, Gallman, and Paul Perkins will be afterthoughts in the offense.
Geronimo will have to fight for the WR3 position with Green Bay’s three new receivers. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Looks like the G-Mo hype train is letting off at the first stop, folks. Those of us who momentarily salivated at the idea of getting Aaron Rodgers’ possible No 2 receiver on the cheap will have to wait and see how training camp shakes out after Green Bay added 3 receivers in the middle rounds of the draft. To make matters worse, J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown all fit the same mold as Allison — tall, fast, big-bodied, with gigantic catch radiuses.
Allison had his moments over the last two years, averaging 7 catches for 78 yards in the 4 games he’s started with Rodgers as the quarterback, but the former undrafted free agent now has an abundance of competition for a role behind Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.
Every Jaguars Receiver
A hazy receiving corp just got even hazier with 2nd round pick DJ Chark added into the mix. Jacksonville already housed 8 receivers heading into the draft — including former WR1 Marqise Lee, free agent pickup Donte Moncrief, and 2017 breakouts Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole — and just spent a good deal of draft capital on someone who has the makings of a star receiver.
It’s a good problem to have if you’re head coach Doug Marrone, but it’s not a great situation for fantasy owners trying to make heads or tails of these assets. Who will be fantasy relevant come September? That question didn’t get any easier to answer after this weekend.
May the Fourth be with you! I’m not a Star Wars guy but it’s still fun to say. The draft is in the past and now we can move on. I couldn’t wait to put out some rankings to talk about with all of the readers. Well, I’m not sure how many of you are reading football posts at this point of the year, but if you are, I’m glad you’re here.
Razzballers, the NFL draft that we have been talking extensively about has come and gone and now we can actually analyze the picks. Who better to have on to talk about WRs than Reception Perception creator, Matt Harmon? (Harmon’s dog even makes a special appearance!)
Side note: When my stupid mouth says St. Thomas, I mean St. Brown (ugh)
After Harmon finishes his visit with us, Reid and myself dive into our teams’ drafts (the Bucs and Bills if you’re new here). We also quickly touch on West World before Reid talked about the new Avengers film. Enjoy!
Ultimate Football Fantasy 