If you made it to week 8 and are now in the Championship, congratulations! We’re well on our way to taking home a year 1 championship over here at Fantasy Knuckleheads. As it stands my team is currently sitting at 5-2. Winning 5 straight behind Week 3’s star pickup Pierson-El. All 3 of last weeks picks struck out, and week 8 isn’t looking much better. I’ve spent this week digging in the trash so you wouldn’t have to. I’ve managed to find 3 players who if you’re really desperate may be able to help you out.
Brandon Radcliff- RB ATL
Last week, Radcliff had 7 carries and 3 targets that he turned into 3 catches and 26 yards. There really wasn’t any production there but that’s a lot of touches for someone still available on most waivers. If you’re really in a pinch, this is your guy.
Daniel Williams- WR MEM
In week 7, Williams caught 5 passes on 9 targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. The week before he caught 7 passes on 11 targets for 70 yards. If he went overlooked on your waivers last week, make sure you snag him before the first week of your playoffs. This may be a true difference maker uncovered just in time. Next up he has the Apollos which has given up over 150 passing yards in both of the last 2 weeks.
Evan Rodriguez- TE SA
No one really wants to play tight ends in AAF Fantasy Football, let’s be honest. They’re abysmal. With that said, if you’re badly in need of a flex, and Radcliff and, Williams are gone, Rodriguez is your best chance of success. Last week Rodriguez caught 3 passes on 3 targets for over 70 yards. Hopefully, he can build on that with a matchup against the Hotshots who just had a tight end of their own catch a touchdown. I really wouldn’t go here unless you have to, but if you’re in between a rock and a hard place look no further.
That wraps up everyone I can tell you to pick up and play with any confidence this week. I know it’s slim but it should be more than anyone else in your league has found with how hard the waivers on altfantasysports.com to navigate. As always follow me on twitter @HessFootball for more AAF, NBA, and NFL fantasy advice and news. I hope to see you all back here next week for another round of AAF Fantasy playoffs. Good luck!
Red Flags is a series that identifies the warning signs in some of fantasy football’s most popular players heading into the 2019 season. These articles aren’t meant to dissuade you from rostering these players entirely, only to provide reasons you may want to temper your expectations.
Since entering the league in 2016, Ezekiel Elliot has been a fantasy football wrecking machine. In his two full seasons, Zeke led the league in rushing yards, while also accruing the most yards per game in each of his three seasons to date. He is, to put it simply, a beast in the Dallas backfield.
And that’s why you should be excited if Elliott is currently on your dynasty team or if you’re able to acquire him in redraft leagues in 2019. But there’s also reason to worry about Zeke heading into his fourth year. And it all starts with his workload.
The Wrong Side Of 300 Carries
The main reason Ezekiel Elliot has been so dominant for fantasy owners over the last 3 years is also the biggest reason to be wary of his production moving forward. Here’s the double-edged sword: Zeke was able to lead the league in rushing yards in 2016 and 2018 because he also led the league in rushing attempts in both of those years. (322 and 304 attempts, respectively.)
Even in 2017, when Zeke was suspended for 6 games, he still finished Top 10 in rushing attempts with 242. (He was on pace for 387.) That’s a lot of wear and tear to rack up on the ol’ walking sticks in such a short amount of time.
And as history has shown time and time again, not many running backs are able to withstand that much grinding and come back the same person the following year. The record books are littered with players who took a big step backward immediately after a 300 carry season.
Since 2011, only one running back increased his total rushing yardage the next year after toting the rock 300 times in a single season. That man was Marshawn Lynch. Not including that Beast Mode outlier (while also disregarding Zeke’s suspension year and Le’Veon Bell’s holdout), all other running backs saw their total rushing marks dip, on average, by 762 yards the following year.
Let me say again: 762 yards. Poof. Vanished overnight.
Granted, some of that was certainly due to injury (i.e. Arian Foster in 2013, Doug Martin in 2013, Adrian Peterson in 2016), but that’s part of the point, isn’t it? Durability concerns are very real when you’re talking about running backs who’ve accrued such high mileage over the course of a season.
Here’s how that group of running backs fared, individually, on a Yards Per Carry basis during their 300 carry season, as well as the year after:
On average, their yards per carry dipped by roughly 0.8. You’ll also notice that a few of those listed above saw a slight increase in their YPC the following year (MJD, Foster, and LeSean McCoy the second time), though again, those three also saw a substantial dip in their carry totals and total yardage.
It’s also worth noting this group’s touchdown numbers dropped by 5.7 the next year. Add that to the aforementioned yard decrease, and you’re looking at about a 110 fantasy point swing from one year to the next.
Deeper Into History
Focusing exclusively on players since 2011 may qualify as recency bias for some of you, so let’s dig a little deeper into the archives. Joe Fortenbaugh did an excellent study of running backs from 2002 to 2011 who fit this context, so I’ll defer to his numbers from here on out.
In that decade-long span, 75 running backs hit the 300 carry mark and came back to play the following season. Of those, 55 (or nearly 75%) scored fewer fantasy points the following year.
And sure, some of those examples regressed by just a handful of points. That’s not going to significantly impact your fantasy lineups. But 40 of them (more than 50%) decreased their output by at least 50 fewer fantasy points the year after. And that number will have an impact.
From that same 55 players whose fantasy points decreased the following year, 35 of them also played in fewer games. 19 of them missed at least 3 games that next season, usually due to injury.
Can Zeke Break The Curse?
The most recent running back not named Ezekiel Elliott to notch 300 carries in a season was Le’Veon Bell, who totaled 321 in 2017. The former Steelers running back knew his risk of injury was getting higher, and so he sat out the 2018 season hoping to refreshen his legs and find a team that would better compensate him.
The fact that Pittsburgh wasn’t willing to pay top dollar — and that Bell would rather forfeit $14.5 million = than risk injury — suggests both parties were aware of how rundown his body was.
So now, enter Zeke. There’s no indication he’ll sit out this year like Bell did (he has no reason to), but will he be able to break the 300 carry curse?
We nearly saw this exact situation play out in 2017, after Elliott had rushed 322 times in his rookie season. But his 6-game suspension kept him from proving (or disproving) the theory.
But here’s what we did see that year: Zeke’s YPC dropped a full yard from 5.1 to 4.1. So did his yards per reception (from 11.3 to 10.3) His yards per game dipped by 10, as well. His rushing TDs per game dipped from 1 per game to 0.7 per game. It certainly appears he was on track to join that long list of stud running backs who got hit with the 300 carry hangover.
Even though I strongly suspect Zeke’s production will hit a speed bump in 2019 due to his previous workload, there are plenty of other factors to take into consideration. Such as…
Youth. For starters, he’ll be just 24-years-old when the season starts. Young players are much better equipped to absorb this type of punishment.
Amari Cooper. In the 7 games before Amari came to town, Zeke was the RB8 in PPR formats. Not too shabby. But from Week 9 on, with Amari in play, he was the RB2, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
Zero Competition. So long as he’s healthy, you never have to worry about Zeke’s workload getting vultured by another member of his backfield. He is the backfield.
Pass-Catching Ability. Zeke saw 95 targets last year, meaning he’s no longer a liability in the receiving department. His 77 catches were 5th-most among running backs. Granted, the return of Jason Witten could cut into that number a little, but he should still fare much better in the receiving department than he did in his first two seasons.
Week 7 of AAF football is upon us. With this comes Johnny Footballs return to our televisions! It’s getting harder and harder to find any standout wire picks that can really help a season. Last week we struck out on Pirce and Saxton. Mullaney, on the other hand, had 6 catches on 7 targets for 73 yards. If for some reason he’s still out in your player pool, go scoop him up. This week we’re really digging in the trash bin, but maybe we can uncover one more diamond.
Johnny Manziel
Manziel so far since college, has not been good at football. On the other hand, the AAF has a shortage of QBs who are good at football. I don’t have a lot of stats here to back this one up but if you need a QB as bad as Memphis does, this is a flyer worth taking. There’s a good supporting cast in Memphis and Hackenberg is the only other healthy QB on the roster.
Terron Ward
Yes, this is the former Atlanta Falcon and yes he did get signed by Salt Lake. Branden Oliver went down for this team 2 weeks ago and now there is a crater for their RB depth chart. Bouganon had 19 carries last week but up until this point, he’s only shown himself to be a plower. Nothing special. Ward was good enough to get some run in the NFL and could take this backfield as early as this week.
L’ Damian Washington
Washington broke out in a big way last week. He dominated to the tune of 4 catches on 10 targets for 128 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a 2 point conversion. This is my top waiver add this week and should immediately slide into a flex spot on any fantasy team. Perez is back under center but he looked as good as he did in week 1 and may be primed for a turnaround. Perez would also be worth picking up for this offense if you need a sure thing with limited upside.
As always, follow me on Twitter @HessFootball for more AAF, NBA, and NFL fantasy coverage! Good luck this week, let’s go out and win these championships over here on Fantasyknuckleheads!
Welcome to the new league year everyone, and welcome to my first Buy Low/ Sell high of this season! Today should be a holiday for all of our fantasy enthusiasts out there if you ask me. The offseason is the time to be constantly checking the news, searching for players to acquire or throw away before your league mates catch on. Today was the first official day of free agency and with that comes a lot of opportunities. Take a quick peek with me and let’s go over where you can cash in.
Players I’m Buying
Jarvis Landry
Odell Beckham Jr. was just traded to the Browns to be the #1 for sophomore QB Baker Mayfield. Landry has been a target monster his entire career and the fact he’s no longer numero uno may scare fantasy owners with pieces of him. We don’t have much knowledge of the system that Freddie Kitchens runs but a reliable slot target is always a positive.
Doug Baldwin
In the offseason, all the hype is with the younger players. It’s a good time to get in on a veteran player. Baldwin missed quite a few games last year and never looked like himself. With a full offseason to heal, and recharge he will be back to top 20 form. If I’m able to acquire a player like him for a second round or later, I’m all over it.
Corey Davis
The Titans have signed Adam Humphries to a pretty big deal. Humphries is a solid slot receiver who runs good routes and doesn’t catch passes. I’ll also tell you what Humphries isn’t. A number one receiver. That’s Corey Davis. Davis was a target vacuum last season and although he didn’t have good results, things are looking up this year. With Taylor growing and Humphries giving help from the slot, defenses will be far less focused on Davis.
The trade of Odell has opened up a TON of opportunities. After OBJ was hurt last year, Engram became a foundation piece to this Giants offense. In the last month of the season, Engram had at least 3 catches and 75 yards in every game while also scoring a touchdown. With Beckham gone for good, and the Giants transitioning to more of a run team, Engram should get all that he can handle. If you’re looking for this year’s Kittle, you just found him. Get him while you can.
Alvin Kamara
This one is going to be a bit pricy, but almost anything is still a discount on the production you should get. Ingram is on his way to Baltimore and Latavius Murray was just signed to be the new vulture. Shame. Or is it? Murray isn’t nearly the same caliber player like Ingram and I expect Kamara’s numbers to be more like the beginning of the season when Ingram was suspended. While teams panic about a new 1B back, I’m taking advantage of getting a top 3 RB for the price of a top 6 or 7. Don’t be afraid to be aggressive in this pursuit.
Players I’m Selling
Tyrell Williams
Williams has officially signed with the Oakland Raiders. (eye roll emoji) At the beginning of the process this was seen as ideal but after Antonio Brown was traded there, I want out. I imagine Williams will have some really big games. He always has, but they won’t be anything near consistent. If someone will buy into the Jon Gruden magic and take him off your hands, don’t be afraid to say goodbye.
Mark Ingram
The landing spot for Ingram is a decent one. The Ravens have made it known that they have a desire to run the ball with Lamar Jackson spearheading their attack. Ingram should touch the ball frequently in competitive games. That’s what I’m worried about. This offseason has seen the likes of Weddle, Suggs, Smith, and Mosley walk out the door on the defense. While at the same time John Brown and Michael Crabtree departed on offense, leaving only Willie Snead and 8 tight ends. Ingram will get ready to turn 30 and this is the time to get off that ship before you have to go down with it.
Baker Mayfield
It’s not so much that I don’t think Baker will be good, It’s just that I think maybe people will have some unrealistic expectations for him. If I have Baker on my team, I’m trying to cash in on all this hype for some more premium positions such as Tight End and Running Back. Fantasy QBs not named Mahomes are a dime a dozen, maybe a baker’s dozen. Sorry, bad dad joke. With 2-3 viable starters coming out of the draft and so many unvalued young guys, this is your chance to cash out on the Browns hype.
With that said, this is the close of week 1. If you want to follow along on my thoughts before I write about them, or you have any questions come on over to Twitter and follow me @Hessfootball. Come back next week for more players that I examine as a potential opportunity to improve your squads. Thank you for reading and have a wonderful fantasy holiday!
The Odell Beckham trade changes everything about the Browns offense. I can’t emphasize enough how big of a deal this is. The Browns paid a hefty price for the 26-year-old super star receiver, but Beckham should be the catalyst for this wide receiver group and Baker Mayfield to take them to the next level. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Welcome back to Week 6. Another week, another QB benching, another opportunity. At this point in the season, my personal team is 4-2 mostly because of who I’ve managed to find on waivers. Grabbing a contributing player or two can make a huge difference in a league with so much uncertainty. Last week I advised you to get your hands on Aaron Murray and he responded by throwing for over 300 yards and a touchdown. Tyms didn’t have a huge day but still had 9 targets. Our last target, Sankey had 7 touches in his first game action of the year. This week we’re targeting another backup QB, a forgotten WR and possibly the only relevant Tight End in the entirety of the AAF.
Keith Price
“The Best” QB in the AAF, Luis Perez was finally benched. Price came in and completed 62% of his passes for 234 yards and the only Iron passing touchdown of the season. Going forward he has one of the best-supporting casts featuring Richardson and Patton.
Richard Mullaney
Mullaney has been hurt the last few weeks and may have been dropped in your league. He practiced last week and should be making his first start since Week 2. Quarterbacked by Wolford, this is a passing attack you want to get a piece of.
Wes Saxton
Saxton may already be taken in your league if you have a sociopath league member who has kept a tight end all this time. Saxton has been putting work in the last 2 weeks. Last week he caught 3 of 4 targets for 75 yards. Austin Sefarien-Jenkins was a leading receiver for the Huskies when Price was the QB. You can bet Price will target Saxton early and often if he keeps the job.
As we near closer to the playoffs, I’ve moved my attention to players who could have huge payoffs. Being able to uncover a gem in all the mud will be the difference between a first-round exit or your first-time championship. If you have any questions about the AAF, NFL or NBA follow me on Twitter @Hessfootball and tweet them to me!
I learned a tough lesson last week. Legitimate sources are not right all of the time. So there I was on Thursday night, pounding away at my keyboard about my thoughts on Antonio Brown becoming a Buffalo Bill. I was looking up stats and really trying to imagine what a Josh Allen to Antonio Brown connection would look like. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Fantasy football twitter has exploded. The anger. The confusion. The agony. Out of 31 teams outside of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Antonio Brown is likely being traded to the Buffalo Bills. Antonio Brown says it’s fake news, for what it’s worth. Details of what the Steelers are getting in return are not yet known, but the Bills are getting the one of the best wide receivers in football.
Quick Thoughts
I will not be drafting Antonio Brown, but it’s not because of his alleged destination.
Hello everybody, welcome back. I apologize for missing last week and maybe costing you that precious waiver wire gem. While I was gone I managed to fall down the stairs carrying a bowl of soup and did not spill a single drop. A real accomplishment. Another accomplishment I’m looking forward to is grabbing you the best picks on your waiver and getting you to the playoffs. There were some key injuries last week, making a few new starting quarterbacks in case you missed a big one before.
Aaron Murray
Murray was one of the more well known AAF players, right up there with Dustin Vaughn, Shoelace and Trent Richardson. Murray was a decorated quarterback in college at the University of Georgia. Many expected him to be an above average NFL QB comparing him with Case Keenum. With the injury to Matt Sims, Murray led the Legends to their first win and is primed to become a top 5 QB. With 4.89 wheels you can expect a lot of scrambling and extra yards.
Bishop Sankey
Sankey is a former second round pick for the Tennesee Titans. While he never did anything in the league, he did have the tools to rightfully be highly selected. With underperforming backs Gardner and Watson, Sankey could come right off IR and take over the backfield. If that happens, getting a lead back in the middle of the season would be huge. I wouldn’t advise you to play him his first week anywhere except DFS unless you’re in a really bad spot.
Brian Tyms
Some of you might remember Tyms from when he looked like the next big thing the patriots dug up. Tyms is 6 foot 4 and ran a 4.4 back at his pro day. After a spectacular preseason, fans were throwing around the name Randy Moss when Tyms was on the field. A 4 game PED ban erased those thoughts and the people forgot about him. Last week he caught 4 of 5 targets for 32 yards in his first bit of game action.
I have the players listed from most important to least. If you don’t have one of the top 2 QBs go get Murray. Tyms would be an above average flex play if you need one and that makes him valuable. Having said that, Sankey could be a league winner if things go his way. Make sure you get those waivers in and lets lock in another big week here at FantasyKnuckleHeads! Make sure to follow me on twitter @HessFootball for questions, DFS tips and more!
Ultimate Football Fantasy 