If you are looking for obsessive and relentless observation, check out the mock draft that Reid put out on yesterday. I’m just here for the funsies, ya dig? FantasyPros is having a mock draft competition and I decided to throw my hat in the ring. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by MB from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2VptbkQ
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This is where dreams are made…
Not really. But this is where my ever-changing 2019 NFL Mock Draft will be located. The mock will alter as I obtain new information or tinker with where I think picks will be. Hit up the comments section and let me know what you think! Please, blog, may I have some more?
by Reid from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2UUzH3t
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We are one day away from draft night and I cannot wait. Who do you have your team taking with their first pick? If you are like me, you are consuming all of the NFL content to keep you satisfied until the regular season kickoff. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by Nic Romero from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2Du78PS
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I’m not projecting any trades involving 1st round picks in this one. My next Mock (which drops on Wednesday 4/24) will have some trades projected.
1) Arizona – QB Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
I’m projecting Arizona trades Josh Rosen to Washington for a 2nd in 2019 and a 3rd in 2020. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by Reid from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2VoyZv6
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B_Don and Donkey are back talking fantasy football this week after completing two way too early fantasy football mock drafts this past week. After B_Don informs Donkey that LeVeon Bell is now a New York Jet, the guy’s dig into their mock draft results. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by B_Don from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2XEfHPR
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Amari Cooper Makes The Dallas Offense Fantasy Elite
The entire 2018 Dallas Cowboys offense can be broken down into two sections: Before Amari Cooper and After Amari Cooper. The former Raider’s impact was that massive. But while many in the fantasy community have finally come around to idea of Cooper as an elite fantasy asset, not as many realize how much he’s bolstered the rest of the Dallas offense. So let’s get everyone up to speed on what happened last year.
After a few weeks of watching Dak Prescott play without a true No. 1 wide receiver, it was evident he simply isn’t a good enough quarterback to operate that way. Dak obviously missed the likes of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. His splits with and without Amari bear that out:
| Before Amari | After Amari | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 202 | 274 |
| Pass TDs | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| Completion % | 62.32 | 71.79 |
| Pass YPA | 6.91 | 7.67 |
| Rushing Yards | 33.7 | 7.7 |
| Rushing TDs | 0.29 | 0.44 |
Dak’s full season pace without Amari: 3,239 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 539 rushing yards, 4.5 rushing TDs.
Dak’s full season pace with Amari: 4,384 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 123 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs.
The only thing Amari hurt was Dak’s overall rushing production, but even that was balanced out by his increased red zone rushing attempts. (Prescott had just 4 before Amari, but a whopping 14 after Amari.)
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Even if you buy into the very reasonable assertion that Zeke is bound to have a down year after amassing so many carries last year, you have to acknowledge that Amari Cooper raised Zeke’s stock.
| Before Amari | After Amari | |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards | 88.4 | 101.9 |
| Rush TDs | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| Rush YPA | 4.65 | 4.79 |
| Targets | 5.1 | 7.4 |
| Receptions | 3.6 | 6.5 |
| Receiving Yards | 25 | 49 |
| Receiving YPA | 7.56 | 7.71 |
Zeke’s full season pace without Amari: 1,414 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs, 82 targets, 58 receptions, and 400 receiving yards.
Zeke’s full season pace with Amari: 1,630 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 118 targets, 104 receptions, and 784 receiving yards.
Not only did Zeke’s target share actually increase with Amari’s arrival, but the quality of those targets drastically improved, as well.
Dallas pretty much did a clean swap by axing Cole Beasley and bringing in Randall Cobb. And while Cobb may be considered the better player by some, that perceived talent upgrade alone won’t be enough for him to absorb a ton of extra targets. That’s just not how Dallas operates. But hopefully he’ll be able to do more with those targets than Beasley did.
| Before Amari | After Amari | |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| Receptions | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Receiving Yards | 50 | 36 |
| Receiving YPA | 10.39 | 8.83 |
| Receiving TDs | 0.29 | 0.11 |
Cole’s full season pace without Amari: 98 targets, 75 receptions, 800 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Cole’s full season pace with Amari: 78 targets, 58 receptions, 576 receiving yards, 2 TDs
This is where things get dicey. The numbers Beasley was putting up the first half of the year made him a mighty serviceable flex option. In fact, that pace would have notched him the overall WR27 at season’s end.
His numbers with Amari, however, would have dropped him all the way down to WR57, amongst the likes of Kenny Stills and Devin Funchess. That’s a major warning sign for the incoming Cobb, but again, hopefully his talent can turn those limited targets into fantasy relevance.
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We can’t talk about all of Cooper’s teammates without analyzing the man himself. It was pretty obvious to anyone watching the games — or checking the stat sheets afterward — that Amari looked completely rejuvenated in Dallas.
| In Oakland | In Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 5.2 | 8.4 |
| Receptions | 3.7 | 5.9 |
| Receiving Yards | 47 | 81 |
| Receiving YPA | 9.18 | 12.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 0.17 | 0.56 |
Full season pace in Oakland: 83 targets, 59 receptions, 752 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Full season pace in Dallas: 134 targets, 94 receptions, 1,296 receiving yards, 9 TDs
His utilization jumped up in a significant way, and every major statistical category saw at least a 38 percent increase. Sure, Amari still had a few “disappearing acts” in Dallas, but nothing like the way he ninja vanished in Oakland. Cooper never saw fewer than 5 targets or 3 receptions once he landed with the Cowboys, a far cry from the 2-1-10-0 stat line he put up over his last two games with the Raiders.
There wasn’t enough personnel consistency at the position in Dallas last year to say for sure whether Amari had a noticeable impact there.
But for those worried that Jason Witten’s return will throw a big monkey wrench into the stats listed above, it should be noted that Blake Jarwin, Geoff Swaim, and Dalton Schultz basically just divvied up Witten’s target share from 2017. Dallas doesn’t typically use multiple TE sets, so don’t expect a gaggle of tight ends to suddenly take over the offense in 2019.
All of this proves that Amari was the missing piece to a high-powered offense, and was the weapon Dak Prescott so desperately needed. Instead of trying to scatter the ball to Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup, and the other misfit toys — and force Cole Beasley into a role he’s not necessarily suited for — he was able to hone in on his primary targets. That’s good for fantasy owners. That’s very, very good.
by Jacob Trowbridge from Fantasy Knuckleheads http://bit.ly/2GoWlHb
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It is the middle of April and I am drafting football players. In the ten years that I have been playing fantasy football, this is the first time that I have drafted teams before July, let alone before the NFL draft has even happened. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by MB from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2Xigc1G
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After a couple of months off, my mind is clear and fingers are rested, NFL free agency has me juiced up to bring you offseason content. March not only marks the start of the NFL season but the beginning of your campaign to fantasy football glory. Please, blog, may I have some more?
by Nic Romero from Fantasy Football Blog at Razzball.com http://bit.ly/2GdPqk9
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Red Flags: Who Is Patrick Mahomes Without His Weapons?
Red Flags is a series that tries to identify the warning signs in some of fantasy football’s most popular players heading into the 2019 season. Please understand, these articles aren’t trying to dissuade you from having these players on your team. But you may want to temper your expectations a little.
There’s no getting around it. Patrick Mahomes was the quarterback to watch in 2018. Kansas City’s sophomore QB decimated defenses all year long with an astuteness, creativity, and unstoppable energy that made Mahomes look like the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers.
And while it’s easy to appreciate the no-look, sidearm, and parkour-style passes Mahomes completed on a regular basis, we mustn’t get so caught up in the theatrics that we fail to see the danger signs for a potential down season. Because believe me, there are danger signs.
Patrick Mahomes deserved every bit of praise he received from real and fantasy football pundits alike. But let’s not pretend he didn’t have an incredible group of talent to work with. And unfortunately, not all of that talent is guaranteed to be around next year.
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Let’s start with an easy one. We know that Kareem Hunt will not be suited up for the Chiefs in 2019. We also know that, because Andy Reid’s offense typically yields fantastic results regardless of the body in his backfield, Damien Williams was able to fill the role admirably once Hunt was cut.
Although the running game continued on without a hitch, there was slight regression in the passing stats when Williams came onto the field.
| With Hunt | Without | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Passing TDs | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Avg Passing Yards | 330 | 294 |
| Completion % | 67.8 | 62.6 |
| Passer Rating | 116.4 | 107 |
| Passing Y/A | 9.4 | 8.1 |
| Rushing Y/A | 4.45 | 3.45 |
In weeks 1-11, Mahomes averaged 27.2 fantasy points per game. In weeks 13-17, after the team’s bye week with Hunt gone, Mahomes averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game. I know, I know. That’s like a bartender telling you they’re out of Grey Goose and you’ll have to settle for Ketel One. But there is a slight — if barely noticeable — difference, and points to some small cracks forming.
And if we were to factor in the real world playoffs, those numbers would dip even more. His TDs average would dip to 1.5, his passing yards to 286.5, his completion percentage down to 59.7, his passer rating to 98.9, and his passing yards per attempt down to 7.96. Again, these are small declines, but they’re not nothing.
Many suspect Williams will get first crack at leading the Chiefs’ backfield in 2019, though it’s possible Carlos Hyde or an incoming rookie is able to steal the job.
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Now the trickier part. It’s a bit premature to assume Tyreek Hill will miss any time in 2019, but given the league’s recent history of suspending players even if they’re not convicted of a crime — that possibility certainly exists.
Hill didn’t miss a single game in 2018, so we have no way of knowing how exactly Mahomes’ play would have been affected. But considering he was by far the most productive pass-catcher on the team, we can take an educated guess.
Hill led Chiefs’ pass-catchers in YPR with an astounding 17.0, while the next closest player (with at least double digit receptions) was Demetrius Harris, with 13.7. More importantly, Hill also led the team in receiving yards with 1,479, amounting to 29% of the Chiefs’ receiving yardage. The next closest wide receiver was Sammy Watkins, who put up just 519. (Though to be fair, Watkins only played in 10 games. Though to be EXTRA fair, Watkins hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2014.)
Hill also led the league in plays over 20 yards (27) and over 40 yards (8). Four of Hill’s 12 touchdowns came on plays of over 50 yards. His ability to gain a ludicrous number of yards after the catch makes him Mahomes’ most valuable weapon. Watkins has never been a YAC monster, and Travis Kelce can only do so much if he’s being double covered.
Remember in 2017 when Alex Smith finished as the QB4 on a per game basis? That was the year Tyreek Hill broke out and Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing yards. Those were good times.
Now flash back to 2016. Alex Smith finished as the QB25 on a per game basis, putting up 540 fewer yards and 9 fewer TDs. His rushing yardage also dipped by 221 yards. Travis Kelce still put up monster numbers (he was the fantasy TE1), and KC had a more-than-serviceable running back in Spencer Ware.
Maybe the offensive scheming took a nose dive that year under Brad Childress? Doubtful, considering Smith finished as the QB27 on a per game the year prior under Doug mothaflippin’ Peterson.
Now obviously hadn’t been considered an elite talent in many, many years by that point. Mahomes, by all accounts, appears to be a generational talent. Then again, NFL’s history books are littered with QBs who exploded for a season but eventually became “one-hit wonders.” Rick Mirer, Steve Beuerlein, Derek Anderson, and to an extent, RGIII.
Mahomes has enough pure talent as a passer to avoid being added to that list, but let’s stop pretending there’s not room for regression.
If you have Mahomes on your dynasty roster, even thinking about trading him probably fills yours face with rage veins. But his value may never be higher than it is right now. Name a format, Mahomes is the QB1 in that format. Now put type his name into your Twitter search bar and watch the monstrous hauls people have been netting for him.
Fact is, Mahomes’ perceived value is so high it would practically be irresponsible not to trade him away. There’s a gaggle of QBs who have just as much upside but aren’t as “sexy” to the fantasy football public. And some of them have fewer red flags attached to them.
In redraft leagues, Mahomes’ ADP is near the top of the 2nd round, around folks like Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon, David Johnson, and Antonio Brown. The next QB isn’t going until late in the 4th round, and his name is Andrew Luck.
Either of them — along with Aaron Rodgers (ADP 5.04) — have the ability to finish as the QB1 in 2019, but the disparity in their perceived values is downright silly.
Is it possible I’m overreacting, and that Mahomes easily nets a Top 5 fantasy finish? Sure. But it’s just as likely he falls outside the Top 5 and leaves a lot of drafters disappointed. I’m not drafting him in redraft or best ball, and I’m certainly not trading for him in dynasty.
by Jacob Trowbridge from Fantasy Knuckleheads http://bit.ly/2OWdFHq
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Ultimate Football Fantasy 